The Tuesday after a U.S. holiday is the worst day
By Alan Scott · Who makes this · Tijuana, Baja California ·
If you're crossing on the Tuesday after a long weekend, do yourself a favor: check which country the holiday belonged to. That's what decides whether your morning is ruined or easy.
It sounds strange. Stay with us.
The numbers
We took the General lane at San Ysidro, northbound, and found every Tuesday that followed a long-weekend holiday between 2023 and 2026, then compared each one against a normal Tuesday from the same weeks.
All seven Tuesdays after a U.S. holiday — Memorial Day and Labor Day:
| Tuesday | Actual | Normal Tuesday | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 5, 2023 | 184 min | 73 min | +111 |
| September 3, 2024 | 180 min | 112 min | +69 |
| May 30, 2023 | 171 min | 85 min | +86 |
| May 26, 2026 | 148 min | 109 min | +40 |
| May 27, 2025 | 111 min | 78 min | +33 |
| May 28, 2024 | 111 min | 86 min | +25 |
| September 2, 2025 | 104 min | 76 min | +28 |
Seven out of seven. Not one exception in four years.
The typical post-holiday Tuesday came in at 148 minutes against 85 for an ordinary Tuesday. That's about an hour extra, and in the worst case nearly two.
And here's the part nobody tells you
We ran the same math on Mexican holidays — Constitution Day, Benito Juárez's birthday, Revolution Day. Eleven cases.
The opposite happens.
| Times it was worse | The Tuesday | A normal Tuesday | |
|---|---|---|---|
| After a U.S. holiday | 7 of 7 | 148 min | 85 min |
| After a Mexican holiday | 3 of 11 | 60 min | 80 min |
After a Mexican holiday, the Tuesday came in 20 minutes better than a normal Tuesday.
Why
Think about who is sitting in that line. It's northbound: people going to work, to school, to shop on the U.S. side.
When the holiday is American, those people don't cross Monday because the other side is closed. Tuesday they all cross at once — the regular Tuesday crowd plus everyone who skipped Monday. And the port runs on holiday staffing, which drags into the next day.
When the holiday is Mexican, the reverse happens: people with the day off stay in Mexico. Northbound demand drops, and because nobody got stuck, there's no rebound.
Which gives you a rule that's simpler than it sounds:
The calendar that matters is the calendar of the country you're going to.
What this data does NOT tell you
It's not a forecast. It's what happened seven times out of seven. Next Labor Day Tuesday will probably be bad — but we're not promising it.
It doesn't tell you the hour. These are full-day averages. A 148-minute Tuesday might have had 220-minute stretches and 70-minute stretches. We can't tell you when to leave from this, and we won't invent it.
Seven cases is enough to see a pattern, not enough to call it a law. Seven is not seventy.
And the holiday itself barely moves. Labor Day itself ran only about 3 minutes above normal. The pileup isn't the holiday — it's the day everybody comes back.
So what do you do
- Tuesday after Memorial Day or Labor Day: move the trip if you can. If you can't, leave two hours early.
- Tuesday after a Mexican holiday: take advantage. It's usually better than normal.
- Wednesday is back to normal. The effect doesn't last the week — it's that one Tuesday.
You might also want:
Sources
Data: San Ysidro, General passenger vehicle lane, northbound. SANDAG, from U.S. Customs and Border Protection records. Period: January 29, 2023 to August 8, 2026 · 1,266 days. Method: each Tuesday is compared against the median of Tuesdays within ±35 days, so the day of the week and the season don't get mistaken for the effect. Median rather than mean, because one extreme day moves a mean. Retrieved: August 11, 2026.
We are not affiliated with CBP or SANDAG.
🔴 Correction notice — August 11, 2026
The first version of this article said "the Tuesday after a holiday," without specifying which country's. It was built on a single case: the Tuesday after Labor Day 2024.
Measuring all eighteen cases showed the rule only applies to U.S. holidays, and that Mexican holidays do the opposite. The article was corrected the same day the error was found.
We're leaving this note here instead of quietly deleting it, because publishing our mistakes is exactly what we say we do.
CHART · build spec
Same chart as the Spanish version — see 6_CONTENIDO/articulos/02_martes_despues_del_feriado.md. 🔴 Do not re-derive the values.
Label translations only: "After a U.S. holiday" / "After a Mexican holiday" / reference line at 85 min labeled "a normal Tuesday" / "Median of 11 cases."